Revista de Economía del Caribe

EDITORIAL

Tax Policy and Informality in the Brazilian Economy

Resumo A pandemia de COVID-19 evidenciou a dimensão da informalidade na economia brasileira. Fatores como desemprego, contratação sem vínculo formal e elevada carga tributária são amplamente documentados na literatura como determinantes desse fenômeno. No entanto, os impactos específicos das mudanças tributárias sobre a informalidade ainda carecem de investigação mais aprofundada. Assim, este estudo tem como objetivo analisar os efeitos de experimentos fiscais sobre a informalidade no Brasil, utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico. Os resultados demonstram que aumentos nas alíquotas tributárias incentivam a informalidade em diferentes dimensões - consumo, produção e trabalho -, gerando consequências negativas para a arrecadação tributária e ampliando os níveis de evasão fiscal. Código JEL E62; H20; J21.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the extent of informality in the Brazilian economy. Factors such as unemployment, employment without formal contracts, and a high tax burden are widely documented in the literature as key determinants of this phenomenon. However, the specific impacts of tax changes on informality remain underexplored. This study aims to analyze the effects of fiscal experiments on informality in Brazil using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The results show that increases in tax rates stimulate informality across various dimensions - consumption, production, and labor - leading to negative consequences for tax revenue and exacerbating levels of tax evasion.

Ceará's lobster exports: an approach by autoregressive vectors - VAR

Abstract Animal protein consumption has been growing worldwide with the advancement of globalization in trade, and it is sensitive to exchange rate changes and domestic product prices. Brazil stands out as one of the world's largest exporters of protein commodities, and Ceará is one of Brazil's largest fish exporters. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how exchange rate changes and changes in lobster prices affect the volume of lobster exported by the State of Ceará (the largest lobster exporter in the country). The selected period covers 2002 to 2022, and the analysis will be conducted using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. The results show that there is no long-term relationship between the variables and that the dynamics of lobster exports from Ceará can be explained much more by factors inherent and subjective to the supply and demand for the product rather than by macroeconomic variables commonly used in studies of this nature.

Resumen El consumo de proteína animal ha ido creciendo en todo el mundo, con el avance de la globalización comercial, siendo sensible a las variaciones del tipo de cambio y de los precios de los productos internos. Brasil se destaca como uno de los mayores exportadores de productos proteicos del mundo y Ceará es uno de los mayores exportadores de pescado de Brasil. Por lo tanto, este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar cómo las variaciones del tipo de cambio y los precios de la langosta afectan el volumen exportado por el Estado de Ceará (mayor exportador de langosta del país). El período seleccionado abarca los años 2000 a agosto de 2023, y el análisis se realizará mediante el enfoque Vector Autoregresivo (VAR). Los resultados muestran que no existe una relación de largo plazo entre las variables y que la dinámica de las exportaciones de langosta de Ceará puede explicarse mucho más por factores inherentes y subjetivos a la oferta y demanda del producto, que por variables macroeconómicas comúnmente utilizadas en estudios de esta naturaleza.

Strategies for the development of the State of Acre in Brazil: a spatial approach

Abstract This study aims to analyze the productive structure and the determinants of intermunicipal income inequalities in the state of Acre, Brazil. Regional economic indicators and Spatial Econometrics techniques were used. The guiding hypothesis is that the dynamics of the labor market influenced Acre's economic development strategy. The results reveal the dynamics of the trade and services sectors, which strengthened the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the agricultural sector, which saw a decrease in its relative share, followed by construction and industry. In addition to reinforcing public and social assistance policies, the study concludes that there were spatial effects from health, education, infrastructure, and other variables on the per capita income differentials among the municipalities. JEL rating: C31; R1; O1.

Resumo O estudo se propõe a analisar a estrutura produtiva e os determinantes das desigualdades intermunicipais de renda no estado do Acre, Brasil. Foram utilizados indicadores da economia regional e técnicas de Econometria Espacial. A hipótese norteadora é a de que a dinâmica no mercado de trabalho afetou a estratégia de desenvolvimento econômico do Acre. Os resultados mostram a dinâmica dos setores de comércio e serviços que fortaleceram a economia no contexto da pandemia da COVID-19 e o setor agropecuário que teve redução de participação relativa, seguido da construção civil e indústria. Além de reforçar as políticas públicas e assistencialistas, o estudo conclui que houve efeitos espaciais da saúde, educação, infraestrutura e outras variáveis sobre os diferenciais de renda per capita entre os municípios. Classificação JEL: C31; R1; O1

Latin America and the Caribbean: exploring consumption from the permanent income hypothesis

Resumen El objeto del presente estudio es constatar la hipótesis de la renta permanente mediante una función de consumo de países de América Latina y el Caribe. Se plantea una ecuación que asocia el consumo de los hogares al ingreso corriente y al ingreso de largo plazo para 14 países latinoamericanos y caribeños en el periodo 2004-2023, utilizando la base de datos Indicadores del Desarrollo del Banco Mundial. Mediante la técnica de datos de panel se obtienen resultados que no verifican una relación entre el consumo y el ingreso de largo plazo, tanto a través del modelo de efectos fijos como del modelo de efectos aleatorios. En ambos casos, el ingreso del periodo anterior y la tasa de interés real no afectarían al consumo de los hogares, lo que no permite constatar el cumplimiento de la hipótesis de la renta permanente. Los resultados sin embargo verifican una relación entre el consumo y el ingreso corriente que se enmarca en la teoría keynesiana.

Summary The purpose of this study is to verify the permanent income hypothesis through a consumption function of Latin American and Caribbean countries. An equation that associates household consumption with current income and long-term income for 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries in the period 2004-2023 is proposed, using the World Bank's Development Indicators database. Using the panel data technique, obtained results do not verify a relationship between consumption and long-term income, both through the fixed effects model and the random effects model. In both cases, the income of the previous period and the real interest rate would not affect household consumption, which does not allow to verify compliance with the permanent income hypothesis. The results, however, verify a relationship between consumption and current income which is framed within Keynesian theory.

Business Expectations and Gender Differences: The of SMEs in Panama

Abstract Panama, located at the crossroads of the Americas, has experienced robust economic growth and political stability in recent years, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of any economy. They contribute significantly to job creation, income generation, and economic growth. In Panama, SMEs play a similar role. The purpose of this paper is twofold, to analyze the relationship between the business environment and business expectations among SMEs in Panama; and to test the hypothesis that women leaders are more likely to have lower business expectations. Using data from the World Bank, we implement a Tobit Regression Model and find that women-led firms are more likely to have negative expectations, relative to their counterparts.

Resumen Panamá, ubicada en el punto medio de las Américas, ha experimentado un sólido crecimiento económico y estabilidad política en los últimos años, lo que la convierte en un destino atractivo para la inversión extranjera. Las pequeñas y medianas empresas (PYMEs) son la columna vertebral de cualquier economía. Contribuyen significativamente a la creación de empleo, la generación de ingresos y el crecimiento económico. En Panamá, las PYMEs desempeñan un papel similar. El objetivo del estudio a continuación tiene dos propósitos. Primero, analizamos la relación entre el ambiente y las expectativas empresariales en las PYMEs en Panamá y desde esta perspectiva, también examinamos la validez de la hipótesis que establece que las mujeres, en el ámbito empresarial, tienden a expresar expectativas negativas en comparación con los hombres. Utilizando datos del Banco Mund ial, implementamos un modelo de regresión de Tobit para evaluar la validez de esta hipótesis. Los resultados confirman que las empresas dirigidas por mujeres tienen más probabilidades de tener expectativas negativas, en comparación con sus contrapartes.

Socioeconomic conditions and insurance for farmers in eastern Antioquia

Resumen Se describen y analizan aspectos socioeconómicos, de trabajo y seguridad social en 21 asociaciones legalmente constituidas de pequeños productores agropecuarios del oriente antioqueño. Es un estudio descriptivo transversal, con aplicación de encuestas a 432 asociados y/o empleados y entrevistas semiestructuradas a representantes legales. Se observaron problemáticas de desempleo e inseguridad social. Se evidenció que el 70% tenía bajo nivel de escolaridad, en salud la cobertura fue de 94.7% en hombres y 96.7% en mujeres, sin embargo, con problemas de acceso; 6.6% de hombres y 6.3% de mujeres tenían cubiertos los riesgos laborales; 8.2% de los hombres y 7.9% de las mujeres estaban afiliados a pensiones. 1 Clasificación Jel: J81, H55, D71, P32

Abstract Socioeconomic, labor, and social security aspects are described and analyzed in 21 legally constituted associations of small agricultural producers in eastern Antioquia. This is a descriptive, cross-sectional study, with surveys administered to 432 members and/or employees and semi-structured interviews with legal representatives. Problems of unemployment and social insecurity were observed. It was evident that 70% had low levels of education; health coverage was 94.7% for men and 96.7% for women, however, with access problems; 6.6% of men and 6.3% of women had occupational risk coverage; 8.2% of men and 7.9% of women were affiliated with pensions. Jel Classification: J81, H55, D71, P32

Consumption, emigration and remittances: a causal relationship? The Colombian case in the 2005-2022 period

Resumen En este documento usando un Modelo de Corrección de Errores VECM, se estudia la relación entre emigración, remesas y consumo final de los hogares para el periodo 2005-2022. El análisis se soporta en la función consumo Keynesiana, que establece la dependencia del consumo del ingreso, se incluyen otras variables como el índice de tasa de cambio real, la emigración de colombianos, la cual según la percepción establece una relación de causalidad en el sentido de Granger con las remesas. Ahora bien, en la medida que las remesas se han incrementado, estas han pasado a formar parte del ingreso permanente de las familias receptoras, lo que establece una relación entre el consumo y las remesas, por lo que se esperaría que la emigración afecte el consumo. Los resultados encontrados indican que la elasticidad del consumo frente a las remesas es muy baja, y que es mucho más alta frente a los cambios porcentuales de la emigración de colombianos. De igual manera se ha encontrado que existe una relación de causalidad en el sentido de Granger entre emigración y consumo final de los hogares, y entre emigración y remesas. Clasificación JEL: C01, C14, C22, E12, E2

Abstract In this paper, using a VECM Error Correction Model, the relationship between emigration, remittances, real exchange rate and household final consumption for the period 2005 -2022 is studied. The analysis is supported by the Keynesian consumption function, which establishes the d ependence of consumption on income. Other variables such as the real exchange rate index, Colombian emigration, which according to the perception establishes a Granger causality relationship with remittances, are included. Now, as remittances have increased, they have become part of the permanent income of recipient families, which establishes a relationship between consumption and remittances, so it would be expected that emigration affects consumption. The results found indicate that the elasticity of consumption with respect to remittances is very low, and that it is much higher with respect to percentage changes in the emigration of Colombians. Similarly, it has been found that there is a Granger causal relationship between emigration and final household consumption, and between emigration and remittances. JEL CLASIFICATION: C01, C14, C22, E12, E21

Social mobility in Peru: impact of education and the socioeconomicenvironment of the head of household (2014-2023)

Resumen La educación de los padres ha sido históricamente un factor determinante en la movilidad social y económica de sus hijos. Este estudio analiza su impacto, junto con variables como sexo, edad, lengua materna, discapacidad, lugar de residencia y región, en las oportunidades educativas y la movilidad social de los jefes de hogar en el Perú entre 2014 y 2023. A través del Modelo Logit Ordinal Generalizado y de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares, se evidencia que la educación parental, especialmente la materna, influye significativamente en el nivel educativo del jefe de hogar. Este hallazgo confirma la existencia de movilidad intergeneracional ascendente, respaldado por estudios previos en América Latina.

Abstract Parental education has historically been a determining factor in the social and economic mobility of their children. This study analyzes its impact, along with variables such as sex, age, native language, disability, place of residence, and region, on the educational opportunities and social mobility of household heads in Peru between 2014 and 2023. Using the Generalized Ordinal Logit Model and the National Household Survey, it is evident that parental education, especially maternal education, significantly influences the educational level of the head of household. This finding confirms the existence of upward intergenerational mobility, supported by previous studies in Latin America.

Public investment in education and its effect on human development in Ecuador

Resumen La inversión pública en educación y su impacto en el desarrollo humano en Ecuador durante 2000-2022 constituye un factor determinante para el progreso socioeconómico del país. La literatura académica destaca la relación entre la inversión en la educación y el desarrollo social en América Latina. Se aplicó una metodología cuantitativa basada en series temporales y un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple con datos de fuentes oficiales. Los resultados evidencian una asociación positiva significativa entre el aumento del gasto educativo y la mejora en indicadores como la tasa de escolaridad y reducción de brechas socioeconómicas. Se concluye que la implementación de estrategias integrales en educación es fundamental para potenciar el desarrollo humano en Ecuador. Códigos JEL: J24, O15, Q58, C22.

Abstract Public investment in education and its impact on human development in Ecuador during 2000-2022 constitutes a determining factor for the country's socioeconomic progress. Academic literature highlights the relationship between educational investment and social development in Latin America. A quantitative methodology was applied based on time series and a multiple linear regression model using data from official sources. The results show a significant positive association between increased educational spending and improvement in indicators such as schooling rates and reduction of socioeconomic gaps. It is concluded that the implementation of comprehensive education strategies is fundamental to enhance human development in Ecuador. JEL Codes: J24, O15, Q58, C22.