Revista de Economía del Caribe

Editorial

Perception of corruption and government approval in Latin America

Resumo Este estudo analisa a relação entre a percepção de corrupção do poder executivo e a aprovação governamental em 18 países latino-americanos. São utilizadas 11.582 observações do Latinobarómetro de 2018 e estima-se um modelo Logit Multinível. Os resultados indicam que maior percepção de corrupção no executivo reduz em 19,1 pontos percentuais a probabilidade de aprovação dos governos. Isso evidencia que a corrupção percebida compromete a credibilidade governamental, expõe fragilidades institucionais da região e limita a efetividade das políticas públicas.

Abstract This study analyzes the relationship between perceptions of executive branch corruption and government approval in 18 Latin American countries. A total of 11,582 observations from the 2018 Latinobarómetro are used, and a Multilevel Logit model is estimated. Results show that higher perceptions of executive corruption reduce the probability of government approval by 19.1 percentage points. These findings indicate that perceived corruption undermines governmental credibility, reveals institutional fragilities in the region, and limits the effectiveness of public policies.

Factores climáticos y macroeconómicos asociados al precio de la papa criolla en Bogotá: un análisis con modelos de desfase temporal

Resumen Este estudio analiza la relación entre variables climáticas y macroeconômicas con el precio de la papa criolla (Solanum phureja) en Bogotá entre 2014 y 2023. Se aplicaron modelos de desfase temporal de hasta seis meses, correlaciones de Pearson y regresión múltiple. Los resultados muestran que la TRM (Tasa Representativa del Mercado) y los fenómenos climáticos extremos (NN, Fenómeno del Niño y de la Niña) son los principales determinantes del precio, mientras que la precipitación y los precios de fertilizantes no presentan significancia estadística. El estudio aporta evidencia empírica para la gestión del riesgo de precios y la formulación de políticas agrícolas basadas en información climática y económica.

Abstract This study analyzes the relationship between climatic and macroeconomic variables and the price of Solanum phureja (criolla potato) in Bogotá, Colombia, during the 2014-2023 period. Time-lagged econometric models of up to six months, Pearson correlation coefficients, and multiple regression analyses were applied. Results show that the Representative Market Rate (TRM) and extreme climatic phenomena (El Niño/La Niña) are the main determinants of price dynamics, while rainfall and fertilizer prices exhibited no statistical significance. The findings provide empirical evidence on the drivers of price volatility in the criolla potato market and offer practical insights for risk management and policy design in the agricultural sector, particularly under the increasing influence of climatic and economic uncertainty..

Impact of human capital on the economic growth of municipalities in Paraná: a spatial analysis from 2002 to 2021

Resumo O artigo investiga o impacto do capital humano no crescimento econômico dos municípios do Paraná, Brasil, no período de 2002 a 2021, utilizando modelos econométricos espaciais. O estudo foca em variáveis-chave como matrículas no ensino superior, consumo de energia e crescimento populacional, analisando seus efeitos diretos e indiretos sobre o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) desses municípios. Como principal resultado, verificou-se que investimentos estratégicos em educação superior devem ser acompanhados por melhorias na infraestrutura energética e políticas que incentivem o crescimento populacional de forma equilibrada, de tal forma que ocorra um ciclo um ciclo virtuoso de crescimento econômico que ultrapasse as fronteiras municipais, promovendo um desenvolvimento mais equilibrado e sustentável em todo o Estado.

Abstract This article investigates the impact of human capital on the economic growth of municipalities in Paraná, Brazil, from 2002 to 2021, using spatial econometric models. The study focuses on key variables such as higher education enrollment, energy consumption, and population growth, analyzing their direct and indirect effects on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of these municipalities. The main finding is that strategic investments in higher education must be accompanied by improvements in energy infrastructure and policies that encourage balanced population growth, creating a virtuous cycle of economic growth that transcends municipal boundaries, promoting more balanced and sustainable development throughout the state.

Disrupción digital y creación de valor en tiendas virtuales de la ciudad de Guayaquil

Abstract The impact that the digital era has had in recent years has driven significant progress in organizations, enabling them to overcome obstacles and achieve success. The purpose of this study was to analyze how digital disruption impacts the generation of value in virtual stores in the city of Guayaquil- Ecuador. This research adopts a correlational approach and uses quantitative methods. The results reveal a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.979, with a p-value of 0.001, which is less than the significance level of 0.05. This indicates that digital disruption impacts the creation of value in virtual stores. In this sense, addressing the challenges associated with digital disruption, even those that already exist, will deliver superior performance that takes full advantage of new technologies.

Resumen El impacto que la era digital ha tenido en los últimos años ha impulsado un progreso significativo en las organizaciones, permitiéndoles superar obstáculos y alcanzar el éxito. El propósito de este estudio fue analizar cómo la disrupción digital impacta la generación de valor en las tiendas virtuales de la ciudad de Guayaquil-Ecuador. Esta investigación adopta un enfoque correlacional y utiliza métodos cuantitativos. Los resultados revelan un coeficiente de correlación de Pearson de 0.979, con un valor p de 0.001, que es menor que el nivel de significancia de 0.05. Esto indica que la disrupción digital impacta la creación de valor en las tiendas virtuales. En este sentido, abordar los desafíos asociados con la disrupción digital, incluso aquellos que ya existen, brindará un rendimiento superior que aproveche al máximo las nuevas tecnologías.

Does population aging influence Brazilian economic growth?

Abstract This paper empirically tests the relationship between productivity and the aging of the Brazilian population from 2012 to 2022, using quarterly data from IBGE and PNAD Contínua. The study follows a Solow-augmented model with the dependency ratio incorporated and employs Johansen cointegration and VECM methods. Results show that population aging exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while the savings rate has a negative long-term effect on per capita income. These findings contrast with much of the international literature, highlighting specific demographic and institutional features of Brazil. The results have policy implications for pension reform, labor participation of older adults, and active aging strategies. JEL classification: C14, C67, E42, E58.

Resumo Este artigo testa empiricamente a relação entre produtividade e envelhecimento da população brasileira no período de 2012 a 2022, utilizando dados trimestrais do IBGE e da PNAD Contínua. O estudo segue um modelo de Solow ampliado com inclusão da taxa de dependência e aplica os métodos de cointegração de Johansen e VECM. Os resultados mostram que o envelhecimento populacional exerce efeito positivo e estatisticamente significativo sobre o crescimento econômico, enquanto a taxa de poupança apresenta efeito negativo de longo prazo sobre a renda per capita. Esses achados contrastam com grande parte da literatura internacional, evidenciando especificidades demográficas e institucionais do Brasil. As implicações envolvem políticas previdenciárias, participação laboral de idosos e estratégias de envelhecimento ativo. Classificação JEL: C14, C67, E42, E58.

Fiscal communication and its effects on monetary policy in Brazil: an analysis based on natural language processing

Abstract The purpose of this article is to investigate how the tone of the fiscal authority's communications can influence monetary policy decisions. To this end, a fiscal policy sentiment index was developed using machine learning techniques, using the monthly public debt reports issued by the National Treasury as a source of information. The sentiment index was used as an explanatory variable in two approaches to achieve the central objective of the article. In the first, a traditional version of the central bank's reaction function was estimated using classic econometric techniques. In the second, the analysis was expanded towards a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE), in order to estimate central bank reaction functions and, with this, produce inferences about the effect of fiscal policy sentiment in the behavior of monetary policy. The main results suggest that fiscal policy sentiment has influenced the monetary policy decision-making process in Brazil, indicating a possible scenario of fiscal dominance. In this sense, this article contributes an unprecedented approach to an important topic in public finance by reinforcing the fundamental role of communication and coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities. JEL Code: C02, C63, E62

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é investigar como o tom da comunicação da autoridade fiscal pode influenciar as decisões de política monetária. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um índice de sentimento da política fiscal utilizando técnicas de machine learning, tendo como fonte de informação os relatórios mensais da dívida pública emitidos pelo Tesouro Nacional. O índice de sentimento foi utilizado como variável explicativa em duas abordagens para alcançar o objetivo central do artigo. Na primeira, foi estimada uma versão tradicional da função de reação do banco central utilizando técnicas econométricas clássicas. Na segunda, a análise foi expandida para um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Estocástico Dinâmico (DSGE), a fim de estimar as funções de reação do banco central e, com isso, produzir inferências sobre o efeito do sentimento da política fiscal no comportamento da política monetária. Os principais resultados sugerem que o sentimento da política fiscal tem influenciado o processo de tomada de decisão da política monetária no Brasil, indicando um possível cenário de dominância fiscal. Nesse sentido, este artigo contribui com uma abordagem inédita a um importante tópico das finanças públicas, reforçando o papel fundamental da comunicação e coordenação entre as autoridades monetárias e fiscais. JEL Code: C02, C63, E62

Gestión relacionai CRM y la fidelización del cliente de las instituciones públicas ecuatorianas

Resumen El problema identificado en las instituciones públicas está relacionado a la escasa capacitación del personal, la resistencia al cambio e inadecuada planificación de estrategias que han provocado limitaciones en la efectividad del servicio público, a pesar de que en algunas de ellas exista un software de gestión relacionai con el cliente (CRM). El objetivo del estudio se centró en examinar la gestión relacional del CRM (variable independiente) y su incidencia en la fidelización del usuario (variable dependiente) en instituciones públicas del Ecuador. En el estudio participaron 200 usuarios que hicieron uso de los servicios públicos, los cuales fueron seleccionados durante la realización del muestreo probabilístico sistemático. Se aplicó un enfoque cuantitativo, correlacional, descriptivo por medio de una encuesta estructurada. Los resultados encontrados indicaron que la fidelización del usuario mantenía una correlación significativa (Rho=0.873; p= 0.000) con la gestión del CRM, lo cual confirmó que la confianza del usuario se ve mejorada a medida que los servidores públicos corregían su capacidad de respuesta en los procesos burocráticos.

Abstract The problem identified in public institutions is related to insufficient staff training, resistance to change, and inadequate strategic planning, which have led to limitations in the effectiveness of public services, even though some institutions have customer relationship management (CRM) software. The objective of this study was to examine the relational management of CRM (independent variable) and its impact on user loyalty (dependent variable) in public institutions in Ecuador. Two hundred users of public services participated in the study, selected through systematic probabilistic sampling. A quantitative, correlational, and descriptive approach was applied using a structured survey. The results indicated a significant correlation (Rho = 0.873; p = 0.000) between user loyalty and CRM management, confirming that user trust improves as public servants enhance their responsiveness in bureaucratic processes.

Dinámicas del crédito y el ahorro en el contexto de la crisis por COVID-19 en Costa Rica (2019-2023)

Resumen En diciembre de 2019, la aparición del SARS-CoV-2 provocó un fuerte impacto sanitario, económico y social a escala global. Este artículo examina los efectos de la pandemia sobre el crédito y el ahorro privado en Costa Rica, mediante un enfoque mixto que combina datos cuantitativos y cualitativos provenientes de fuentes oficiales y de medios de comunicación, abarcando el periodo 2019-2023. Durante 2020, el año más crítico, el PIB real se contrajo y afectó variables macroeconómicas clave, entre ellas el ahorro y el crédito. El comportamiento de estos indicadores evidencia una crisis económica cuya magnitud se vio amplificada por condiciones estructurales preexistentes que profundizaron los efectos de la pandemia.

Abstract In December 2019, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 caused a severe health, economic, and social impact globally. This article examines the effects of the pandemic on credit and private savings in Costa Rica, using a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative data from official sources and media reports, covering the period 2019-2023. During 2020, the most critical year, real GDP contracted, affecting key macroeconomic variables, including savings and credit. The behavior of these indicators reveals an economic crisis whose magnitude was amplified by pre-existing structural conditions that exacerbated the effects of the pandemic.

Análisis de las prácticas de sostenibilidad y gestión de en minas de carbón: Caso Municipio de Sogamoso, Boyacá

Resumen La minería de carbón es un pilar económico en Colombia, pero su sostenibilidad está en entredicho por sus impactos, en este estudio, se busca evaluar la optimización de los recursos derivados de las minas de carbón en el municipio de Sogamoso, Boyacá, considerando aspectos ambientales, sociales y de salud pública. Mediante un enfoque mixto, combinando el análisis documental, con análisis estadístico multivariado de correspondencias múltiples, con observación directa, 23 entrevistas y 80 encuestas a actores clave. Se evidencia una profunda brecha entre el robusto marco legal colombiano y su precaria aplicación. La optimización responsable en la minería se asocia a conciencia ambiental, conocimiento legal y participación comunitaria; su ausencia refleja fallas de gobernanza; por ello urge fortalecer la fiscalización y la capacidad comunitaria para transitar hacia una minería sostenible, integrando gestión del capital, costos y valor circular. Clasificación JEL: Q32, Q53, Q56; Q58, L71

Abstract Coal mining is an economic pillar in Colombia, but its sustainability is called into question due to its impacts. This study seeks to evaluate the optimization of resources derived from coal mines in the municipality of Sogamoso, Boyacá, considering environmental, social, and public health aspects. Using a mixed approach, combining documentary analysis with multivariate statistical analysis of multiple correspondence, direct observation, 23 interviews, and 80 surveys of key stakeholders, the results reveal a deep gap between Colombia's robust legal framework and its weak enforcement. Responsible optimization in mining is associated with environmental awareness, legal knowledge, and community participation; its absence reflects governance failures. Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen oversight and community capacity to transition toward sustainable mining, integrating capital management, costs, and circular value. JEL: Q32, Q53, Q56; Q58, L71

Incidencia de la capacitación técnica y la inversión en tecnología en la productividad de los pequeños productores agrícolas del cantón Quevedo

RESUMEN La investigación aborda la relación entre la asistencia técnica y la productividad de los pequeños agricultores del cantón Quevedo, Ecuador, donde la agricultura representa una actividad clave para la economía local. Se estudiaron 80 productores vinculados a un centro de acopio, con diversidad en edad, nivel educativo y experiencia agrícola. Se utilizó un enfoque mixto, combinando entrevistas no estructuradas, cuestionarios estructurados y revisión documental, además de un modelo de regresión múltiple lineal para analizar cómo variables como asistencia técnica, extensión de áreas cultivadas, inversión en tecnología y edad del agricultor influyen en los ingresos. El análisis evidenció que la asistencia técnica tiene un efecto positivo y significativo sobre los ingresos, aumentando en promedio 73,3 USD por productor, al facilitar la adopción de mejores prácticas de cultivo, manejo de plagas y optimización de recursos. De manera complementaria, la extensión de las áreas cultivadas también incrementa los ingresos, aunque depende de factores como manejo adecuado, acceso a insumos y condiciones climáticas. Estos hallazgos resaltan la importancia de programas de capacitación y acompañamiento técnico como herramientas estratégicas para potenciar la productividad agrícola. Se concluye que la asistencia técnica constituye un determinante clave para mejorar la rentabilidad, la sostenibilidad y la resiliencia de los pequeños productores en Quevedo, promoviendo prácticas innovadoras, fortaleciendo la comercialización directa y contribuyendo al desarrollo rural sostenible.

ABSTRACT This study explores how technical assistance influences the productivity of small farmers in Quevedo, Ecuador, where agriculture plays a central role in the local economy. Eighty farmers from a local collection center, representing diverse ages, educational backgrounds, and farming experience, participated in the research. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combined unstructured interviews, structured questionnaires, and document analysis, along with a multiple linear regression model to understand how factors such as technical support, farm size, technology use, and farmer age affect income. The results reveal that technical assistance significantly boosts farmers' earnings, increasing average income by 73.3 USD per person by helping them adopt better cultivation practices, manage pests effectively, and optimize resources. Larger farm areas also contribute to higher income, although success depends on proper management, access to inputs, and favorable climatic conditions. These findings highlight the critical role of practical training and consistent support in improving productivity. The study concludes that providing technical assistance is essential for enhancing profitability, promoting innovative farming practices, strengthening direct sales, and fostering sustainable development in rural Quevedo.

Regulación antimonopolio en mercados digitales algorítmicos propuesta de marco jurídico adaptativo

Resumen La acelerada digitalización de los mercados y la automatización de decisiones económicas mediadas por algoritmos han desbordado los marcos tradicionales del derecho de la competencia, al generar nuevas formas de poder económico y coordinación tácita que desafian la capacidad regulatoria de los Estados. En ese sentido, el objetivo del presente artículo es proponer un marco jurídico para la regulación antimonopolio en entornos algorítmicos, combinando la teoría de la elección racional con la economía del comportamiento, a fin de equilibrar coherencia normativa, eficacia disuasoria y adaptabilidad tecnológica. Los resultados revelan que la economía conductual, aunque ofrece herramientas valiosas para comprender sesgos y dinámicas organizacionales, no proporciona una teoría normativa eficaz para garantizar proporcionalidad y coherencia sancionatoria. A partir de ello, se propone un marco jurídico que preserve la racionalidad estructural del derecho, incorpore mecanismos conductuales, así como establezca estándares de transparencia y auditabilidad algorítmica. De ese modo, se plantea una redefinición del enforcement antimonopolio, orientado a equilibrar legitimidad democrática, eficacia empírica y adaptabilidad tecnológica.

Abstract The accelerated digitalization of markets and the automation of economic decisionmaking through algorithms have surpassed the traditional frameworks of competition law, giving rise to new forms of economic power and tacit coordination that challenge the regulatory capacity of States. Accordingly, this article aims to propose a legal framework for antitrust regulation in algorithmic environments by combining rational choice theory with behavioral economics, in order to balance normative coherence, deterrent effectiveness, and technological adaptability. The findings reveal that behavioral economics, while offering valuable tools to understand cognitive biases and organizational dynamics, lacks an effective normative theory to ensure proportionality and sanctioning coherence. Based on this diagnosis, the study proposes a legal framework that preserves the structural rationality of law, integrates behavioral mechanisms, and establishes standards for algorithmic transparency and auditability. Thus, it advances a redefinition of antitrust enforcement designed to reconcile democratic legitimacy, empirical effectiveness, and technological adaptability.

Behavioral economics of crime: dual process, ambiguity and intertemporal inconsistency

Resumo Este estudo tem como objetivo revisar e sistematizar a bibliografia de Economia Comportamental do Crime. A análise foi estruturada em três grandes áreas: processos cognitivos duais, ambiguidade e inconsistência intertemporal, por se tratarem de temas fortemente vinculados à Economia Comportamental. Em cada um desses tópicos, são explorados seus efeitos sobre a tomada de decisão criminal, bem como as implicações resultantes para políticas públicas de aplicação da lei (law enforcement) e para a formulação de normas no âmbito do Direito Criminal.

Abstract This study aims to review and systematize the literature on the Behavioral Economics of Crime. The analysis is organized into three main areas: dual cognitive processes, ambiguity, and intertemporal inconsistency, as these are closely related to core topics in Behavioral Economics. For each of these areas, the study explores their effects on criminal decision-making, as well as their implications for law enforcement policies and the formulation of legal norms within Criminal Law. JEL Codes: K42, D81, D91, K14