Abstract

ARISTIZABAL, María Clara. Colombian Experience under a Controlled Float of the Exchange Rate: The Role of Bank Interventions. Lect. Econ. [online]. 2006, n.65, pp.75-116. ISSN 0120-2596.

The objective of the present work is to explore the non-linear relationship between money and inflation in Colombia through an artificial neural network using monthly information for the variation of the consumer price index and the monetary aggregate M3 since January 1982 through February 2005. Artificial neural networks turn up as an excellent alternative for monetary authorities to count on the best models to forecast inflation and guide their policy decisions. This article incorporates some innovations in money and inflation modeling that allow to generate more reliable forecasts given that the model approximates reality with greater accuracy.

Keywords : artificial neural network; non-linearity; hidden unit; activation function; rolling test; asymmetric lost function.

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