Abstract

QUEIROLO, Rosario. LAS ELECCIONES URUGUAYAS DE 2004: la izquierda como la única oposición creíble. colomb.int. [online]. 2006, n.64, pp.34-49. ISSN 0121-5612.

This paper argues that the success of the leftist Encuentro Progresista-Frente Amplio in the 2004 Uruguayan election is the result of being the only untainted and credible opposition in the party system. After many governments in charge of the Partido Colorado and Partido Nacional, the EP-FA was the only party that cannot be held responsible for the country s bad economic situation because it was never in charge of the national government. Using data from a 2004 national preelectoral survey, the paper shows that attitudes towards risk and economic assessments of the country s situation influence voting behavior in Uruguay. Risk acceptant individuals who evaluate negatively the countrys economic performance have a higher probability to vote for the EP-FA than risk averse voters with a positive assessment of the country s economy.The evidence from the Uruguayan case suggests that the increase of leftist parties in other Latin American countries could be explained in the same way.

Keywords : Uruguay; elections; leftist parties; prospect theory; economic evaluations.

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