Abstract

JIMENEZ, Victor J. Estimation of Acceptable Cost Tolerance Limits in Uncertainty Environments Using Monte Carlo Simulation. Ing. compet. [online]. 2022, vol.24, n.2, e21611551.  Epub May 26, 2022. ISSN 0123-3033.  https://doi.org/10.25100/iyc.v24i2.11551.

Due to the uncertainty in production processes, organizations must establish when a variation in cost with respect to a reference estimate is considered acceptable and when corrective, preventive or improvement actions must be taken. Considering tolerable values generates the idea that the cost is not a deterministic parameter, but that it can oscillate in a defined range, so that the estimates that belong to said range are considered normal and those that are outside generate intervention measures by part of decision makers. This paper presents a methodology that allows establishing the tolerance interval. The methodology uses an activity-based costing matrix model that incorporates Monte Carlo simulation to represent the inherent variability in each of the processes. The methodology was applied in a case study in the transportation sector, obtaining as a result the range of control values, which serves as the basis for making tactical and operational decisions within the organization.

Keywords : Activity Based Costing; Uncertainty; Monte Carlo Simulation; Transport.

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