Abstract

BARRIENTOS, Juan Carlos; RONDON D., Camilo  and  MELO, Sandra E.. Price performance of the potato varieties Parda Pastusa and Diacol Capiro in Colombia (1995-2011). rev.colomb.cienc.hortic. [online]. 2014, vol.8, n.2, pp.272-286. ISSN 2011-2173.

During 2013, Colombian potato growers publicly protested the drop in potato prices. This price phenomenon has not significantly changed in recent years, but every year it worsens, adversely affecting the income of farming families. In order to provide an explanation, documentary research was conducted on the prices along with a statistical analysis of the price series of the potato varieties Parda Pastusa and Diacol Capiro from 1995 to 2011. The statistical analysis showed similar results for both varieties. The nominal price had an uptrend and the real prices had a downtrend. The series showed seasonality: the first semester had a tendency for high prices and the second one had middle to low prices. However, this seasonal performance only had an occurrence of 65% for the studied period. The price variability was high to very high, reflecting the breadth of the range between the maximum and minimum prices. This presents a huge risk for producers, especially for small farmers who have no financial insurance for their production. The price series had irregular cycles; however, it was possible to develop a mathematical model to predict the prices, a Sarima model, which was developed with the statistical software R. This model allows for price forecasting for some months. These results could help better plan seeding. Alongside this strategy, producers can use best marketing planning and technological innovation, methods that can reduce the price variability caused by weather, pests, and diseases, among others.

Keywords : trends; seasonality; variability; cycles; time series.

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