Abstract

JARAMILLO, Juan C et al. Risk function for survival in patients with heart transplant. Rev. Col. Cardiol. [online]. 2007, vol.14, n.1, pp.33-42. ISSN 0120-5633.

After 20 years of experience with 193 heart transplants using the Cox model of proportional risks, it was possible to evaluate the different risk variables, both pre, intra and post-operatory, in order to construct a risk model for the population undergoing the surgical procedure. For determining the significance of each one of the variables, the Breslow equation was utilized. The variables identified as risky, were: peptic acid disease, liver failure, cigarette smoking, previous surgery with pericardial involvement, prolonged ventilation time, surgical implantation technique, age, bleeding associated to anticoagulation and cyclosporine starting time. Finally, the variables included in the Cox model were: presence of liver disease, age and ventilation time (greater or equal to 48 hours). The final model is the following: Ht = h_o(t) Exp (1.377 x hepatic disease + 1.214 x ventilation time (0 <48 hours-1 ³ 48 hours) + 0.360 x age [ 1 (16- 44 years) 2 (45-60 years) 3 (> 60 years)].

Keywords : trasplante cardiaco; riesgo; modelo de Cox; heart transplant; risk; Cox model.

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