Abstract

BARJA, Gover. Using mobility measures to explain short-run economic performance during Covid-19's first wave. ecos.econ. [online]. 2021, vol.25, n.53, pp.4-38.  Epub Jan 20, 2023. ISSN 1657-4206.

People's mobility behavior and self-correcting economic forces are shown to be key variables in explaining the observed contraction and recovery of the Bolivian economy during COVID-19's first wave. ARMAX models are used to explain the growth rate of the monthly index of economic activity in terms of changes in the rate of mobility measures produced by Google. These measures are argued to capture the effect of the complex dynamics of COVID-19 epidemiology and COVID-19 policies on people's decisions when balancing health risks with inevitable economic sacrifice, thus affecting aggregate economic activity.

Keywords : ARMAX models; Google mobility; COVID-19 policies; Economic activity; Bolivia..

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