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Semestre Económico
Print version ISSN 0120-6346On-line version ISSN 2248-4345
Abstract
SALAZAR VERGARA, Juan Gabriel. Design of a Predictive Model for Granting Credits. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2021, vol.24, n.57, pp.320-347. Epub Aug 16, 2022. ISSN 0120-6346. https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v24n57a15.
The objective of this article is to present evidence on the evaluation of the probability of default in the payment of a loan granted by employee funds of higher education institutions in Medellín and the Metropolitan Area in the period 2017-2019. To determine the probability of loan repayment, a binary logistic regression econometric model was estimated. The estimates showed that of the 384 cases studied, two hundred and forty (62.5 %) are likely to pay and one hundred and forty-four (37.5 %) are likely not to pay their commitments.
JEL classification:
G17, G23.
Content:
Introduction; 1. State of the art; 2. Theoretical and conceptual framework; 3. Methodology; 4. Results; 5. Conclusions; Rerefences; Annexes.
Keywords : Binary logistic regression; credit risk; credit allocation; Finance system; Colombia.
