Abstract

URREGO-PEREIRA, Yenny Fernanda et al. Climate change and spatiotemporal variability of temperature (1980-2020 series) in Tolima, Colombia. Acta Agron. [online]. 2023, vol.72, n.1, pp.7-15.  Epub Apr 22, 2024. ISSN 0120-2812.  https://doi.org/10.15446/acag.v72n1.109207.

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity and from now, on actions must be taken to reduce its impacts on the natural environment, agricultural systems and future life on the planet. In the present investigation, the spatiotemporal variation of the air temperature in Tolima was analysed in order to detect trends that show climate change and modifications in the Köppen climate classification in the department. In this work, a climatological database made up of 37 stations managed by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies IDEAM was used. The database was divided into two time series, one from 1980 to 1999 and the other from 2000 to 2020, and the temperature was analyzed, considering dry and rainy seasons and the Niño-Niña-Neutral phases of the ENSO phenomenon, with the purpose of identifying difference patterns in the temperature and climatic classification between the time series. Then, the air temperature increase rates identified at areas of Tolima were used to build temperature estimation models for the next 20 years. The analysis showed that 55 % of the stations presented a trend of increasing temperatures and for the next 20 years, a temperature increase between 0.08 °C and 3.25 °C is projected. This increase would be faster and more intense than those predicted by IDEAM, having the worst scenario with a radiative forcing of 8 W m-2 day-1. On the other hand, the Köppen classification did not change for both time series, 1980-99 and 2000-20, and neither for the projected 2020-40 series. However, the observed and projected increase in air temperature suggests a raise in evaporation rates that could increase vulnerability to droughts and forest fires in Tolima.

Keywords : Köppen climate classification; climate variability; climate change.

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