Abstract

LOPEZ-CALATAYUD, Nereida Coromoto; MARQUEZ-ROMANCE, Adriana Mercedes  and  GUEVARA-PEREZ, Edilberto. Spatio-temporal prediction of water balance in the Urama river basin, Venezuela. Dyna rev.fac.nac.minas [online]. 2021, vol.88, n.217, pp.58-67.  Epub Nov 09, 2021. ISSN 0012-7353.  https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v88n217.88222.

A novelty spatial and temporal forecast method of water balance variables in Urama basin wetland, Venezuela is presented in this paper. The methodology consists of two stages: 1. Compilation of the information, using meteorological data on precipitation (rainfall) and evaporation from 73 climate stations, Landsat images and a digital elevation model for the study basin. 2. Processing the information: a) modelling the spatial statistical forecast; b) forecast model; and c) forecasting time series of water balance variables. The advantage of the method is to use available data to forecast the water balance variables by means of statistical spatial prediction models, selecting those with a seasonal trend approximating the observed values. Correlation and determination coefficients were greater than 0.99 indicating satisfactory predictions, so that the method, is appropriate to reproduce the spatio-temporal profile of future periods to be used for planning sustainable management of wetlands.

Keywords : water balance; forecast; space-time; wetland.

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