Abstract

RAMOS BARROSO, Cristina Isabel  and  GALVIS CIRO, Juan Camilo. Effects of fiscal credibility on investment expectations in Colombia: Empirical evidence for the 2005-2019 period. Desarro. soc. [online]. 2022, n.92, pp.273-315.  Epub Sep 30, 2022. ISSN 0120-3584.  https://doi.org/10.13043/dys.92.8.

Fiscal credibility plays an important role in creating favorable scenarios for investment and economic growth. Adequate management of public finances can be decisive in the perception of country risk and the attraction of foreign capital. The aim of this paper is to build a fiscal credibility index and evaluate its impact on investment expectations in Colombia for the 2005-2019 period. Using monthly data on fiscal credibility, investment expectations, and a set of control variables, estimates were made using OLS and GMM methods. Robustness tests were performed using impulse-response functions. The findings reveal that fiscal credibility directly influences the investment decisions of private agents, and that local interest rates and international volatility negatively affect investors’ expectations.

JEL Classification: E62, H60, H68.

Keywords : Fiscal credibility; Investment; Public finances; Colombia.

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