Abstract

VELASQUEZ H, JUAN DAVID; DYNER R., ISAAC  and  SOUZA, REINALDO C.. POLÍTICAS PARA LA INTEGRACIÓN DEL JUICIO EXPERTO Y LOS PRONÓSTICOS ESTADÍSTICOS EN EL MARCO ORGANIZACIONAL. estud.gerenc. [online]. 2006, vol.22, n.99, pp.131-150. ISSN 0123-5923.

It has been long recognized, the importance of prediction in decision making, and evidences have been found about the one of most effective methods is the adjustment of forecasts based on mathematical models using judgement. Notwithstanding, it exists an amount of factors that might affect the quality and credibility of the predictions; in this work, the factors related with the organization politics are examined, and several strategies are proposed for their mitigation.

Keywords : Forecasting; Organizational Strategies; Judgement; Mathematical Modeling.

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