Abstract

ALONSO-CIFUENTES, Julio César; TAPIA-PIZO, Fiorella Jessica Vanessa  and  CARABALI-MOSQUERA, Jaime Andrés. A proposal to measure economic time series return to pre-COVID-19 levels. estud.gerenc. [online]. 2021, vol.37, n.159, pp.294-302.  Epub July 27, 2021. ISSN 0123-5923.  https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2021.159.4467.

This document presents a tool that allows analysts to determine whether a monthly or quarterly time series has returned to pre- COVID-19 levels. Index of return to pre-pandemic uses seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models to calculate a lower and upper limit for the expected value of the series. In this way, this index generates a zone for which analysts can affirm that the variable under study has recovered its historical levels with a given confidence level. To this, eight different series of the Colombian economy are used. Two strengths of this index are its ease of interpretation and needing only data from the series under study.

Keywords : COVID-19; index; pre-COVID; economic situation.

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