Abstract

LORENTE S.-B., Luis. The causal explanation in economics. Rev.econ.inst. [online]. 2018, vol.20, n.39, pp.9-51. ISSN 0124-5996.  https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v20n39.02.

Economic theory avoids explanations of causal type and adopts functional relationships and equilibrium solutions that suppose some form of symmetry between the variables involved. However, causality is an inherent assumption of any economic policy or decision, which is defended and adopted only because a certain effect is expected from it. The distrust stems from the fact that, in the absence of an experimental method that isolates phenomena from its environment and guarantees its repeatability, it is possible to imagine numerous causes, even teleological, that interfere with each other and offer an excess of alternative explanations, without a clear criterion to choose among them. However, there are circumstances that allow the deduction of regularities of causal type in a context of dynamic change, innovation and permanent imbalance. This article develops several simple examples that have important consequences for economic theory and suggest fundamental adjustments in some policies.

Keywords : Accounting identity; statistical correlation; causal explanation; explanatory theory; macroeconomic analysis; economic policy..

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