Abstract

ROJAS GAMBA, Néstor Iván; FONSECA SALAMANCA, Liby Angélica; PEREZ RUEDA, Sandra Liliana  and  BLANCO SUAREZ, Miguel Alfonso. Urban Growth Modeling: Tunja 2017-2035. Bitácora Urbano Territorial [online]. 2022, vol.32, n.1, pp.177-190.  Epub July 11, 2022. ISSN 0124-7913.  https://doi.org/10.15446/bitacora.v32n1.87758.

This article quantifies the trends in the growth of urbanized land in Tunja city, Colombia, with the aim of modelling future scenarios. The modeling is based on the satellite images classification and the inclusion of the driving factors in the urban development. The view of the viable development areas is achieved through the following stages. 1). The preprocessing, which defines the study area and adapts the images. 2). The processing, which classifies the images of years 2000, 2012 and 2017 and generates coverage and use maps: urbanized, green zone and open area. 3). The postprocessing, in which the accuracy of the classification of images is validated. 4). The Modeling of future scenarios, that incorporates factors of change and restrictions towards urbanized areas. It generates the analysis of change and potential areas of transition to urbanized areas, providing predictive data for 2017, 2025 and 2030. The modeling is validated comparing the 2017 prediction with the classiication image of the same year and then, modifying factors until the 2017 prediction image is representative of the classiication image.

Keywords : remote sensing; simulation models; urban planning; urbanization.

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