Abstract

VELASQUEZ H., Juan David  and  AGUILAR V., Soraida. Analysis of the long term dynamics of the constant value unit. Rev. ing. univ. Medellín [online]. 2011, vol.10, n.18, pp.97-106. ISSN 1692-3324.

Box and Jenkins models have been used for modeling and forecasting of many economic and financial variables. In this article, that methodology was used as an alternative to analyze the long- term dynamics of the constant value unit. The final model was accepted after applying several standard tests of diagnostic. The SARIMA model was accepted after having used an amount of standard diagnostic tests, as result of it, the model fit well to the data, and explorative prediction accuracy is acquired when it represents the cycle patterns and for long term.

Keywords : arima models; time series; constant value unit; difference; integration.

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