Abstract

GOMEZ-SANCHEZ, Andrés Mauricio  and  SALAZAR-VILLANO, Fabián Enrique. Demand for imports in the Colombian Pacific region: a long-term outlook. Entramado [online]. 2014, vol.10, n.2, pp.24-43. ISSN 1900-3803.

This document examines the long-term behavior and determining factors of imports into the departments on the Pacific coast of Colombia from both a theoretical and an applied perspective. This is done considering that the local production development and domestic consumption are sustained by foreign purchases which have been favored by economic integration efforts on the part of Colombia since the implementation of an economic opening model in the early 1990s. To identify these determining factors and examine their behavior, a model of import demand was built and estimated, which includes a cointegration review and an error correction method which identify, at a practical level, the economic variables that should be taken into account in stimulating imports into the Colombian Pacific region. The model demonstrates that, in all territories with the exception of Chocó, there is a stable, long-term relationship between total imports, exchange rate, and GDP, and a positive impact on economic deregulation processes in purchases from abroad in these departments. Hence, political efforts should evolve around production growth by means of institutional arrangements, exchange rate regulations, risk management mechanisms, and a larger number of free trade agreements.

Keywords : International trade; imports; regional economics; cointegration; economic policy.

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