Abstract

DELGADO-VELEZ, Luis David. Development of a financial planning model for the food's company using Monte Carlo simulation. Entramado [online]. 2021, vol.17, n.2, pp.24-40.  Epub Jan 19, 2022. ISSN 1900-3803.  https://doi.org/10.18041/1900-3803/entramado.2.7563.

The goal is to develop a financial planning model that allows calculating the probable profits of a food company in Colombia, in a time horizon of six years. The methodology used is the Net Present Value of its Free Cash Flow, calculated from 38 input and process variables that include the macroeconomic aspect, financial policies and financial statements. 10.000 iterations were carried out with the Montecarlo simulation technique. The simulation results indicate that its probable profits are between $278.293 million and y $449.934 million with a confidence level of 90%. The sensitivity analysis of the financial plan allows to conclude that the company should reformulate its financial policies related to the management of working capital, since the debt clients and mainly the inventories has a negative influence on the Net Present Value, according the regression coefficients.

JEL CLASSIFICATION

B41, C15

Keywords : Financial Planning; food companies; Montecarlo Simulation; Net Present Value.

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