Abstract

CORREDOR VELANDIA, César Augusto  and  VEGA MAZZEO, Stefano. The Short-term analysis of contagion variables and financial news in the United States and Colombia. rev. econ. Caribe [online]. 2012, n.9, pp.42-78. ISSN 2011-2106.

This paper studies the contagion effect in financial, monetary and stock variables from the US markets on the same type of Colombian variables. It uses Granger causality test and a Vector Autoregressive model in order to obtain impulse-response functions between both countries' variables and to determine the effect of financial news originated in the US. This research reveals that stock variables have a stronger correlation than fixed income markets. It also shows that short run shocks are more frequent and have more impact on stock markets. During turbulence periods it is found that there is a rise in volatility which follows an increase in news, shocks have a more persistent effect and expected shocks originated in the US are anticipated by investors in Colombia, which is reflected in a higher volatility in Colombian variables before it increases in US.

Keywords : volatilty; financial shockss; financial transmision; Stock indexes.

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