Abstract

CASTILLO NUNEZ, Omar. Dairy product prices dynamics in colombia: the case of the province of cordoba. rev. econ. Caribe [online]. 2012, n.9, pp.107-127. ISSN 2011-2106.

Using statistical and econometric techniques such as multiplicative moving average, cointegration and impulse response functions, in this paper analyzes the relationship of long and short term between the producer price of milk and cheese from the coast at the wholesale level in Córdoba, Colombia. There is a strong seasonality: prices rise between November to April, and down from May to October. The transmission's elasticity of long-term indicates that a 1% increase in the producer price of milk increases the price of cheese at the wholesale level at 0.69%. An unexpected shock in these markets causes instability and countercyclical price trajectory. The results are reasonable; the countercyclical behavior confirms the role damper cheese production to avoid more drastic falls or increases the producer price of milk at critical times.

Keywords : elasticity of price transmission; Seasonality; Cointegration; Unexpected shocks.

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