Abstract

MURGUIA MARANON, Jaime Martín. Macroeconomic Outlook to 2029: Peru. Soc. Econ. [online]. 2024, n.51, e10312419.  Epub Mar 20, 2024. ISSN 1657-6357.  https://doi.org/10.25100/sye.v0i51.12419.

This research aims to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of Peru up to the year 2029 through the analysis and prediction of time series for GDP, TITP, AVD, GST, and SCT indicators. The research is non-experimental, quantitative, and descriptive, employing a univariate method that applies triple exponential smoothing. The time series analysis yielded trends, seasonality, and white noise components for each indicator. We found that the increasing trend component is predominant for GDP, GST, and TITP, while for the SCT and AVD indicators, the trend component is flat. Despite the COVID-19 crisis, Peru is macroeconomically equipped to face the challenges of the global and market economy at the end of the 2020-2030 decade.

Keywords : macroeconomics; taxation; fiscal policy; GDP; COVID-19.

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