Resumen

CHIVATA CARDENAS, Ibsen. Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories. Ing. Investig. [online]. 2008, vol.28, n.1, pp.26-40. ISSN 0120-5609.

For the city of Manizales a landslide susceptibility model was developed. The landslides occurrence have been main environmental problem in the city. Fuzzy sets, Possibility Theory and Theory of Evidence were used in the model construction process, due set of circumstances involving uncertainty. In this particular case uncertainty contents concern to lack of representative data and the need of articulating systematically subjective information. The strategy adopted for the estimation of the susceptibility was the estimation and conservation of uncertainty through modelling process. The model contains data of masses vulnerability and their uncertainties. The output data are expressed in a map defined by linguistic categories or uncertain labels as: lower susceptibility, medium susceptibility, high susceptibility and very high susceptibility. This way of representation is considered appropriate for susceptibility communication. It was developed a fuzzy spectrum which classifies the susceptibility levels according perception and experts' opinion. The model shows, in the study area, levels of susceptibility between lower susceptibility to high susceptibility, being more frequent medium susceptibility. The issue shows the details on systematic data processing. The concept of Fuzzy Parameter is introduced, it is useful in modeling phenomena with uncertainty, complexity and nonlinear performance. It is shown susceptibility modeling can be feasible through these theories and tools of uncertainty. It is shown equally in the paper, the high convenience of incorporating the uncertainty in modeling process and decision-making. It was concluded if in a modeling process that incorporate uncertainties like identified ones, susceptibility quantification is not adequate because is not convenient to reduce model outputs information into exact or real numerical quantities, when the nature of the variables is particularly uncertain. The latest concept is applicable in risk assessment. This work can be considered like an analytic-synthetic research.

Palabras clave : landslides; susceptibility; uncertainty; possibility theory; evidence theory.

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