Objectives:

To estimate the evolution of the incidence and prevalence of hearing loss in the elderly in low-, middle- and high-income countries by means of system dynamics simulation according to global parameters and to analyze the influence of the implementation of health strategies.

Methodology:

A causal loop diagram was developed to relate the incidence, prevalence and treatment of hearing loss to the level of inequality, risk factors (RF), use of hearing aids (HA), audiologist and otolaryngologist (ENT) workforce by country income level. A flow chart was then constructed to run the simulations over a 100-year period. In addition, four simulations were run with health strategies (reduction of RF, improvement in HA use, increase in the number of audiologists and ENT specialists) and the percentage change from the baseline model was estimated.

Results:

Low-income countries showed a higher incidence and prevalence of hearing loss, less access to adequate treatment, and a higher prevalence of untreated or inadequately treated hearing loss. The reduction of RF increased the population with normal hearing by 15% and 33% over the next 50 and 100 years, respectively. In addition, the improvement in the use of ha achieved a 60% reduction in the population with inadequate or untreated treatment, and the increase in audiologists and ENT specialists improved the access to adequate treatment by 250%.

Conclusions:

The evolution of hearing health is conditioned by economic factors, where the most disadvantaged environments show worse indicators. In addition, the implementation of combined strategies would favor hearing health in the future. System dynamics is a very useful methodology for health managers because it enables to understand how a disease evolves and define what are the best health interventions considering different scenarios.

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