Introduction:

It is estimated that in the period 2007-2011, around 1500 new cases of oral cavity were diagnosed in Colombia, and that around 500 people died of this cause, the majority men. The etiology of this disease is related to the human papilloma virus, alcohol and cigarette use. This study tries to quantify the effect on oral cancer incidence of a hypothetical change in the prevalence of these risk factors in the period 2015-2050.

Methods:

macrosimulation models based on secondary data.

Results:

According to the simulated scenarios, elimination of cigarette and alcohol use and elimination of infection by the human papillomavirus in the Colombian population, would probably prevent 27.6 % to 82.1 % of all new cases of oral cavity cancer expected to occur in the period 2015-2050.

Conclusions:

according to the projections produced by the World Health Organization and the models we specified, there will be a potential increase in the number of new patients diagnosed with oral cavity cancer associated with the use of alcohol and a low impact of the interventions currently in place. It will be necessary to implement measures to descrease alcohol consumption and sustain current efforts to reduce cigarette use. It is important to take into account the limitations of the simulation models.

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