Resumo

QUERO-VIRLA, Leonardo. Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia. ecos.econ. [online]. 2016, vol.20, n.43, pp.23-38. ISSN 1657-4206.  https://doi.org/10.17230/ecos.2016.43.2.

This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchardand Galí (2010) is estimated under arecursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative andreaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.

Palavras-chave : SVAR; impulseresponse; oil market; Colombia..

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