Resumo

NUNEZ VIVEROS, Carlos Andrés; GALLEGO HIDALGO, Gabriel José  e  BUENAVENTURA VERA, Guillermo. Methodological design for the evaluation of energy projects with prices uncertainty: the case of cogeneration in a firm in Cali. estud.gerenc. [online]. 2013, vol.29, n.126, pp.58-71. ISSN 0123-5923.

Energy resources in the industry have increased in importance and competitiveness, representing the second or third major item in the cost of manufacture. The fluctuating behavior of historical costs, as well as the uncertainty of their future trend, accentuated by the imminent removal of the tax contribution on electricity (20% of the tariff), has led to questioning whether energy co-generation projects will be viable in the near future. This paper shows, from the development of an innovative methodology to assess the feasibility of the implementation of projects of co-generation based on three simulations that used statistical information and mathematical projections, as well as a performing a sensitivity analysis of the expected behaviors of future prices of electrical energy and fuels.

Palavras-chave : Financial Assessment of Projects; Co-generation of Energy; Net Present Value; Internal Rate of Return; Simulation.

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