Resumo

ESPINOSA ACUNA, Oscar Andrés  e  VACA GONZALEZ, Paola Andrea. The Influence of Financial, Fiscal and External Sectors in the Colombian Economy: A Bayesian VAR Approach. Desarro. soc. [online]. 2015, n.75, pp.11-49. ISSN 0120-3584.  https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.75.1.

This paper analyzes the possible effects of different shocks from the financial, fiscal and external sectors, on the evolution of macroeconomic activity in Colombia. From an analytical approach of aggregate demand, it is employed Bayesian VAR models using the Minnesota prior density, with quarterly data for the period 1995-2013. Through the impulse-response analysis and Granger causality, the results show the potential risk scenarios in the aggregate economic growth, as well as stylized facts about relationships between variables of interest.

Palavras-chave : Sectorial impacts policy; macroeconomic activity; BVAR; Minnesota prior.

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