Resumo

GOMEZ G., Luis Fernando  e  ZUNIGA ESCOBAR, Orlando. Methodology for assessing vulnerability to climate change of rural househods of Cali hillside districts using fuzzy logic. rev. cienc. [online]. 2015, vol.19, n.1, pp.89-105. ISSN 0121-1935.

Based on the concept of complex, dynamic, non-linear systems that integrate the man-nature relationship, a methodology based on fuzzy logic for determining vulnerability to climate change is proposed. Its application takes effect by rural households in the districts on the hillsides of Cali, choosing as a model the Sustainable Livelihood (SL) framework. Primary information was obtained from a survey among residents under the heading of the concept of the 5 SLAssets: physical, natural, human, economic-financial, socio-cultural-political. Matlab Fuzzy toolbox for fuzzy evaluationof adaptability and sensitivity, the two components of vulnerability is used. For specification of agricultural sensitivity, based on the change of suitability of maize, beans, bananas, cassava and coffee between 2015 and 2030, it was made the most of the availability of databases as WorldClim, Ecocrop, IPCC and software as a DivaGis and ArcGIS. The methodology proved to be promising as an alternative to linear methods to measure vulnerability to climate change and allowed adequately answering the three research questions

Palavras-chave : Sustainable Livelihood; Climate Change; Vulnerability; Fuzzy Logic.

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