Resumo

VILLEGAS, Esmeralda; LABARCA, Nelson  e  POZO, Bladimir. AN ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN VENEZUELA. Tend. [online]. 2013, vol.14, n.1, pp.122-145. ISSN 0124-8693.

The objective of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela for the period 1999-2010. We used an analytical framework for the exchange rate based on economic fundamentals. The empirical evaluation was based on the technique of cointegration analysis and error correction model through the estimation method Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). To calculate the equilibrium real exchange rate is made using the estimated coefficients and trend values for key variables approximated by the Hodrick and Prescott. She found a long term relationship between the real exchange rate, the aggregate productivity, terms of trade, government spend- ing as a percentage of gross domestic product, capital flows and the degree of openness. In terms of the model he considered episodes both exchange rate overvaluation and undervaluation. Specifically, it can be said that there is a need to combine the most appropriate way, flexibility and credibility in exchange rate policy, in a context of macroeconomic consistent policies.

JEL Classification: C5, F31, F41

Palavras-chave : equilibrium real exchange rate; real exchange rate; exchange rate; misalignment; error correction model..

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