Resumo

HIDALGO VILLOTA, Mario Eduardo. ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF PARTICIPATING IN THE BLACKS AND WHITES’ CARNIVAL OF PASTO, COLOMBIA THROUGH BINARY DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS: LOGIT AND PROBIT. Tend. [online]. 2018, vol.19, n.2, pp.161-181. ISSN 0124-8693.  https://doi.org/10.22267/rtend.181902.102.

The Blacks And Whites’ Carnival that takes place in the city of Pasto, Colombia, was declared by UNESCO as Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity in 2009. The objective of this article is to estimate the probability a person (local resident, visitor national or foreign) may or may not participate as a cultural spectator in the Carnival; for this, logit and probit models were used, and the results allow to conclude that participation in the carnival depends inversely on age; and directly, of the educational level and the personal income of the individuals. Similarly, these models predict a high probability of participation of 96.5% and 97.0%, respectively.

JEL: C25, D12, H41, Z10

Palavras-chave : The Black and White Carnival from Pasto; logit and probit models; economy of culture and cultural goods..

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