Resumo

BETANCOURT, Alejandro  e  QUINTERO, Luis Antonio. Urban dynamics evaluation of Envigado city. ecos.econ. [online]. 2012, vol.16, n.34, pp.29-48. ISSN 1657-4206.

This article presents the methodological conceptualization and the main results of a System Dynamics model, which main objective is to support the housing policies in the city of Envigado. The used methodology developed a scenario-based model to emulate the approximate evolution of the housing demand and supply for the city, using a scenario of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a housing authorization strategy as input. Diverse results were obtained, for instance it was found that due to the soil availability, the housing supply reaches the saturation point between 2040 and 2046. Finally this article could be considered as an example of how academic tools such as System Dynamics can be used by decisions makers in the government.

Palavras-chave : Construction; Demography; Urban Dynamics; Inmigration; Migration; Territorial Ordering Plan.

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