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Cuadernos de Geografía: Revista Colombiana de Geografía
versão impressa ISSN 0121-215Xversão On-line ISSN 2256-5442
Resumo
SIABATO, Willington e MONTILLA-MONTILLA, Yeimy. Spatial Characterisation of Forced Displacement in Colombia During the Period 1984-2016. Cuad. Geogr. Rev. Colomb. Geogr. [online]. 2022, vol.31, n.2, pp.341-376. Epub 17-Nov-2022. ISSN 0121-215X. https://doi.org/10.15446/rcdg.v31n2.101013.
Considering forced displacement as the historical event with the highest number of victims in the Colombian armed conflict, a spatial characterisation of this phenomenon was conducted for the period 1984 - 2016. Official data from the Registro Único de Víctimas and the Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica were analysed by applying spatial analysis methods namely spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I, Geary's c) and weighted mean centre (centre of gravity). The identified spatial patterns have shown that the phenomenon mainly responds to disputes amongst different armed actors because of territorial control of areas considered geostrategic within the framework of the Colombian armed conflict. In addition, the results of the correlation analysis suggest that forced displacement is motivated by victimising events as forced disappearance, threats, crimes against liberty and sexual integrity, homicide, and massacres. The spatial analysis results are linked to historical and social milestones as well as documented victimising events that contextualise the identified patterns. This article shows through spatial statistics that forced displacement is not a random phenomenon; in contrast it follows a cluster-like spatial pattern that reveals how such phenomenon has affected different areas of Colombia in a more localized way, depending on the period analysed. The analysis identifies as the primary nuclei of displacement the region of Magdalena Medio; the sub-regions of Urabá, Alto Sinú, San Jorge, and Montes de María; the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta; the Pacific Coast (Litoral Pacífico); and the former zone of détente. Forced displacement is a permanent phenomenon in the Colombian national territory.
Highlights:
Forced displacement has affected Colombia continuously between 1984 and 2016. During this period, it has affected 99.8 % of municipalities and victimised more than eight million citizens. The most affected municipalities have been Buenaventura, Turbo, Medellín, El Carmen de Bolívar, and Tumaco. Forced displacement shows a clustered spatial behaviour both in high and low-impact areas. Moreover, it is a phenomenon that responds to different victimising events, depending on the period and the political and social moment in the country.
Palavras-chave : local analysis; spatial autocorrelation; Geary's c; Colombia; military conflict; Colombian internal conflict; forced displacement; victimising events; Moran's Index; internally displaced people.
