Resumo

SANTAMARGARITA-PEREZ, Sonia; SANCHO-MESTRE, Carla; VIVAS-CONSUELO, David  e  USO-TALAMANTES, Ruth. Evaluation of a predictive model of pharmaceutical expenditure in primary health care based on demographic variables. Rev. Gerenc. Polit. Salud [online]. 2013, vol.12, n.25, pp.55-65. ISSN 1657-7027.

Problem: In the current context of budget constraints in the health sector management systems that allow allocating spending more efficiently are required. In the case of pharmaceutical expenditure, risk adjustment models are tools that help to improve the efficiency. Objectives: To evaluate the predictive power of a pharmaceutical expenditure adjustment model, Standardized Amount Indicator, using sociodemographic variables: Copayment, international coverage, age and sex. Methods: We included the population registered in Valencia (Spain) between 01/09/2009 and 31/08/2010. Population was standardized and linear regression analysis was performed in order to explain the variability of outpatient pharmaceutical expenditure. Results: The adjustment model evaluated improve the predictive power, reaching a R² of 34%. Conclusions: This models valid to predict pharmaceutical costs and allocate prospective budgets to health districts and centers.

Palavras-chave : primary health care; health expenditure; information systems; clinical pharmacy; outpatient care; risk adjustment; demography; primary heatlh care; health financing; health expenditures; ambulatory care; risk adjustment; demography.

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