Introduction

Participation in peacekeeping operations (PKO) has been an objective of the Military Forces of Colombia (FFMM in Spanish) for many years. In the current context, as a result of the capacities acquired in the matter of irregular conflicts and after the signing of the Peace Agreement between the national government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC in Spanish), the possibility of encompassing this regulated international military scenario opens up for the United Nations.

It is worth noting that Colombia has little experience and high expectations in this area; therefore, its performance could be a determinant for its military positioning in the international system. This situation gives rise to the following question: What advantages and disadvantages would the Military Forces of Colombia have in participating in PKO between 2019 and 2023?

To determine the advantages and disadvantages of the FFMM in this scenario, first, a conceptual framework was developed in which the basic concepts were explained following the stipulations of the United Nations. Second, the capacities of the FFMM that result in preponderant factors to the development of PKO were established. Then, the possible role of the FFMM in current PKO operations was identified. Finally, an evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages with the projection of temporality between 2019 and 2030 is completed.

The importance of this thematic development is based on the concept of peace-building coined by the UN in 1992, which describes it as "effort that seeks to strengthen peace and prevent the conflict from resuming" (Naciones Unidas, 2017). Besides determining the ongoing development of PKO, the UN classifies them into five categories: observation, interposition, transition support, security, and humanitarian aid, and forced peace enforcement.

In line with the previous, the need to identify the international context in which the FFMM would perform optimally is relevant, as well as how they would obtain successful PKO results and experience.

Theoretical framework

The theoretical framework to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the FFMM's participation in PKO between 2019 and 2023 is based on Johan Galtung's Theory of Conflict, considered by the United Nations as one of the fundamental bases for the establishment of a conceptualization of peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and peacemaking. To the author, "man is a being with the capacity for peace" (^{Calderón, 2012}, p. 64). Thus, the preservation of peace lies in the human being's need to approach and fulfill his or her evolutionary goal.

In this line, the author states that "conflict has its own life cycle; like any living organism, it appears, grows until it reaches its point of maximum tension, declines, and disappears, and often, reappears" (^{García, 2000}, p. 128). In other words, a conflict is a cyclical dynamic that implies a possible reappearance in the majority of the cases. Therefore, efforts towards its resolution result extensive, complicated, and complex insofar as it is a matter of mediating between the parties. Thus, the following can be stated:

The author divides conflicts, for study, in three levels, micro, meso, and macro level. The first occurs within and between people; the second arises in society within each state or nation; and, the third includes the conflicts between states and nations. (^{Garcia, 2000}, p. 129)

For Galtung, the theory of conflict "should not only recognize if the conflict is good or bad; it must fundamentally offer mechanisms to understand them logically, scientific criteria to analyze them as well as methodologies" (^{Calderón, 2012}, p. 67). This means that, based on a classification of the conflicts, the author can determine the means to resolve them; this becomes a determinant for the structuring of the PKO in which the Military Forces participate.

Galtung's Theory of Conflicts establishes three dimensions to locate the definition of conflict; these are attitudes, behaviors, and contradictions. These can be interpreted as follows:

Attitudes (motivation aspect) refer to how the parties to a conflict feel and think about, how they perceive the other (for example, with respect and love or contempt and hatred), and how the other reflects their own goals and conflict. Behaviors (objective aspect) refers to how the parties act during the conflict, whether they seek common interests and creative and constructive action or if they try to harm and cause pain to the other. Contradictions (subjective aspect) refers to the real issue or premise of the conflict and how it manifests. (^{Calderón, 2012}, p. 69)

Therefore, three elements, based on those already mentioned, are outlined as measures or factors of implication to address the conflict. Each one is coherently focused and involves various solutions aimed at peace education, problem solution, and social re-engineering. In this sense, it is important to take into account the elemental composition or "atoms" of the conflicts, which, according to the author, are "Dispute: two people or actors pursuing the same goal that is scarce (among people). Dilemma: a person or actor that pursues two incompatible purposes (within people)" (^{Calderón, 2012}, p. 71).

Once these elements are identified, Galtung indicates the need to execute a process of awareness to attain an image of the conflict and direct the transformation towards the benefit of those directly affected. As a result of the above, the author classifies the types of violence involved in the conflict into the following three categories: direct, structural, and cultural; these are explained in Table 1.

Table 1 The three types of violence and their impacts on human needs, according to Galtung 

Source: Created by the author with data by the Instituto de la Paz y los Conflictos (2012, p. 74).

For its part, the terminology of the conflict defines various approaches to participation and intervention in these situations and identifies four in terms of peace operations: imposing, establishing, maintaining, and building peace. In this case, the last three will be defined concerning the FFMM's possible work projected from 2019 to 2023:

Peacemaking operations: Reduce violence and ensure peace by separating opposing parties. Operation by military forces or armed forces with coercion power to the parties. [...]PKO Peace-keeping: Create peace through negotiations, through diplomatic channels and dialogue even if a military presence or armed force is considered necessary to maintain peace. [...] Peacebuilding: Consolidate peace and promote stability by addressing the underlying context of the conflict with long-term programs. Peacebuilding is a form of intervention carried out mainly by civil society, as well as by non-governmental organizations, although the UN also claims to do so, and sometimes, it names its interventions with this term. (^{Internationale Weiterbildung und Entwicklung, 2008}, p. 15)

Thus, according to conflict theory, "The real test of peace, according to Galtung, is the ability to deal with conflict, managing it creatively, transcending (3) the incompatibilities and acting on it without using the resource of violence" (^{García, 2000}, p. 122). That is, peace is a system that needs different conditions to achieve a balance in which the use of violence is not involved; this implies the use of accurate methods because, according to the author's conception, this task is one of the most difficult for humanity, as much as it can be for the FFMM.

Therefore, it is important to understand, from a theoretical perspective, the dynamics and factors that motivate the evolution of conflicts to formulate a method or action whose development is successful in establishing peace between the parties involved. In this case, Colombia must evaluate, from its military experience, which of these scenarios could be more favorable for its participation as an actor in the international positioning race and also for the success of the mission.

Methodology

To determine the FFMM's advantages and disadvantages in this area, a methodological framework is developed with two components. The first one consists of a review to establish which of the FFMM's capabilities are significant factors to the development of a PKO and identify which of these global operations could be suitable to the performance of Colombia (prioritizing those that present favorable scenarios). The second component is a structural analysis based on the use of the MicMac tool, which facilitates the evaluation of advantages and disadvantages with the 2019-2023 projection.

Regarding the first component, it is important to mention that "the review of the literature is handled as a set of techniques that are part of the methodology of scientific research, and that it is not limited to a disorderly collection of information" (^{Calle, 2016}, p. 2). To clarify, the information collected was relevant to the case study that responds to the specific and general objectives set for this study, with academically viable and reliable sources.

As an initial step, a "systematic review (scientific articles, indexed journals, and books on research methodology of recognized international publishers) as an exploratory and analytical technique to collect the relevant information on existing procedures" (^{Calle, 2016}, p. 3) is carried to identify the authors, articles, reports, and institutions, as well as the pertinent, current figures to adequately sustain the research. Searching by keywords, approximately 200 records were found and reviewed for the period from 2000 to 2018.

A descriptive review was carried out because it "provides the reader with an update on useful concepts in areas in constant evolution. These types of revisions are very useful in teaching and will also interest many people in related fields" (^{Ferrandis, Goris, & Salas, 2008}, p. 6). This established the necessary bases for the final diagnosis to assess the advantages and disadvantages of FFMM participation in PKO.

Finally, the MicMac method was used, which "seeks to qualitatively analyze the relationships between the variables that make up a system within a company, organization, society, country, etc." (^{Cortez & Garza, 2011}, p. 373). In this case, the aim is to analyze the relationship that the variables of interest may have in the participation of the FFMM in PKO.

The phases of the method proposed by ^{Godet and Arcade (1999)} were fulfilled; these are: "Phase 1: list of system variables; Phase 2: the description of relationships between system variables; and Phase 3: the identification of key variables and their categories and interpretation" (^{Cortez & Garza, 2011}, p. 336). To complete the exercise, between 10 and 15 variables were identified, fully conceptualized and categorized between advantages and disadvantages. Subsequently, a qualification matrix was created. Once the results were obtained, the position of the variables and their dynamics were analyzed to identify the most significant challenges and abilities. This procedure was based on the statements by Godet, who states that

We apply the prospective to explore the possible and/or probable future developments of companies, groups, sectors, organizations, institutions, issues or problems of all kinds (political, economic, technological, sociological, etc.) in the medium and long-term, through the analysis of the variables that will most influence the evolution, and taking into account the behavior of the actors involved. (^{Godet & Arcade, 1999}, cited by Cuevas & Morales, n.d., p. 3)

In this way, the variables that can become an obstacle or a bridge for the Military Forces in the period 2019-2023 in the matter of PKO were prospectively visualized.

Results

Performance of the FFMM in current PKO of interest

Para determinar cuál podría ser el desempeño de las FF. MM. en las actuales OMP, se realiza una evaluación de cada operación de acuerdo a su ubicación y mandato; posteriormente, se establece cuál podría ser el desempeño de las FF. MM. en tales escenarios. Actualmente, las Naciones Unidas tienen en curso 15 misiones (tabla 2), de las cuales solo una corresponde a territorio americano. Así mismo, se destaca que Uruguay, Argentina y Perú se posicionan como los países latinoamericanos que mayor aporte dan a las misiones de mantenimiento de la paz.

Table 2 Role of the FFMM in current PKO 

Source: Created by the author with data by the Naciones Unidas (2018b).

An evaluation of each operation was carried out, according to its location and mandate, to determine the roles that the FFMM could fulfill in existing PKO scenarios. Currently, the United Nations has 15 missions in progress (Table 2), only one in the American territory. Uruguay, Argentina, and Peru are positioned as the Latin American countries that provide the greatest contribution to peacekeeping missions.

Evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the participation of the Military Forces in PKO 2019-2030

A list of the variables with the highest significance for PKO efforts, as well as the necessary capacities for their development was created, based on the Colombian experience, to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages (Table 3).

Table 3 List of variables 

Source: Created by the author.

Subsequently, the rating of the variables (Table 4) was carried out with a group of experts including six professionals in international relations and military sciences, with specialties in the areas of national security and defense, geopolitics, geostrategic, resolution of conflicts, strategic intelligence, and management of international relations at the military level.

Table 4 Rating of variables 

Source: Created by author using MicMac software.

Lastly, the results of the rating were interpreted by obtaining the direct plane of influence and direct dependence yielded by MicMac (Figure 1).

Source: Created by the author using MicMac software.

Figure 1 Direct plane of influence and direct dependence 

According to Figure 1, it is evident that variables such as the Colombian FFMM's force generating and logistic capabilities are elements that would determine its adequate performance in the development of peacekeeping operations, in comparison with other armies.

To enhance the capabilities of the Military Forces and create an advantage over other armies, it is necessary to develop or strengthen their actions in areas of peace consolidation, such as irregular combat, protection of human rights, demining, deactivation of artifacts and explosives, and the implementation of the peace agreement with the FARC, based on the location of the variables in the "leverage" quadrant. An added value or advantage (regardless of the performance of the Military Forces in peacekeeping) is in the support for border security during the development of these missions, as well as their experience in internal armed conflict.

The autonomous variables that need to be aligned with the strategy or that represent a weakness for the Military Forces in the development of peacekeeping missions are humanitarian assistance, and disarmament, demobilization, and reincorporation, as well as acting in the eventual supervision of ceasefire, and providing security for members of UN missions.

Conclusions

The Military Forces can play an essential role in the development of peacekeeping operations. Moreover, these efforts serve as a platform for the internationalization of the Army under the international standards of the United Nations, making the professionalization essential to fulfilling the mission adequately.

The FFMM capabilities identified as preponderant in the development of PKO are the following: command and control, strategic and tactical mobility, disaster response, terrestrial and airspace control, as well as maritime and fluvial space control and special forces.

After an evaluation of the current peacekeeping missions and FFMM projections, it was determined that their role in these would be directed towards the observation, humanitarian attention, protection of civilians, demining and deactivation of explosive devices, as well as contributions in the consolidation of peace in certain territories.

Based on the identification and intersection of the preponderant variables for the participation of the Colombian FFMM in PKO it was evidenced that adequate performance in this scenario depends on the development of force generating and logistics capabilities in the field, using the experience acquired over 54 years of conflict and the current implementation of the peace agreements.

Finally, in response to the research question posed, the FFMM's experience in internal armed conflicts and security, as well as their force generating and logistic capabilities is their source of highest potential for the participation in PKO from 2019 to 2030. On the other hand, there are disadvantages or aspects to be strengthened to yield an excellent performance; these are peace consolidation, irregular combat, protection of human rights, demining, and deactivation of explosive devices, as well as the implementation of the peace agreement with the FARC.