Resumo

VELEZ, Santiago; NUNEZ, Claudia Patricia  e  RUIZ, Daniel. HACIA LA CONSTRUCCIÓN DE UN MODELO DE SIMULACIÓN DE LA TRANSMISIÓN DEL DENGUE EN COLOMBIA. Rev.EIA.Esc.Ing.Antioq [online]. 2006, n.5, pp.23-43. ISSN 1794-1237.

Dengue fever has been considered a public health problem worldwide. In several Colombian regions, where environmental conditions seem to be favorable enough for disease transmission, incidence has been showing important high values. Simplified versions of the infectious disease mathematical models CIMSiM and DENSiM were proposed to be applied for representing the transmission dynamics of dengue incidence in a specific Colombian locality. This is our first quantitative attempt to explore the possible influence of climatic variables on dengue transmission in endemic urban areas. Climatic records were analyzed to detect possible anomalies and their degree of association with epidemiological time series. Statistical analyses showed increasing trends in maximum, mean, and minimum monthly temperatures, as well as in mean monthly relative humidity records. A 3.347-day simulation period, spanning from 1996 through 2005, was selected for representing dengue incidence in the municipality of Bello, on the Andean region. Correlation coefficients between observed and simulated dengue indexes reached 0,185 and 0,766 (p<0,05) during recorded outbreaks. Simulation results suggest, as it has been reported, that temperature and relative humidity are the most relevant climatic variables driving the final dengue incidence. Preliminary analyses show the necessity of including non-climatic factors in the representation of the complex dynamics of dengue transmission. Simulation results also suggest that the comprehensive model could be used as a powerful tool for diagnosing the dynamics of disease transmission under several entomological, climatic, and epidemiological future scenarios.

Palavras-chave : Dengue; modeling; simulation; transmission.

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