Abstract

ROMERO-QUETE, Andrés Arturo; MOMBELLO, Enrique Esteban  and  RATTA, Giuseppe. Assessing the loss-of-insulation life of power transformers by estimating their historical loads and ambient temperature profiles using ANNs and Monte Carlo simulations. Dyna rev.fac.nac.minas [online]. 2016, vol.83, n.197, pp.104-113. ISSN 0012-7353.  https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v83n197.48134.

A non-invasive method useful for asset management is to estimate the functional age of the insulating paper of the transformer that is caused by thermal aging. For this purpose, the hot-spot temperature profile must be assessed by means of some transformer characteristics, the historical load, ambient temperature profiles and a set of equations. In many in-service unit cases, the available data is incomplete. This paper proposes a method to deal with the lack of data. The method is based on the estimation of the historical load and ambient temperature profiles by using an artificial neural network and Monte Carlo simulations. The probable loss of total life percentage of a 30 MVA power transformer is obtained through the proposed method. Finally, the corresponding results for the assessed transformer, a model validation section and conclusions are presented.

Keywords : aging; artificial neural network; asset management; Monte Carlo methods; load profile forecasting.

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