Abstract

PENALOZA-RUEDA, María Fernanda; ROJAS-MESA, July Katerine  and  LEGUIZAMON-BARRETO, Luis Carlos. A case study for the estimation of the hazard produced by landslides triggered by rainfall and seismic activity between Tunja and Guateque, Colombia. Dyna rev.fac.nac.minas [online]. 2023, vol.90, n.226, pp.73-82.  Epub Feb 13, 2024. ISSN 0012-7353.  https://doi.org/10.15446/dyna.v90n226.105904.

Due to the problems of instability on the slopes located along the road that connects the city of Tunja with the municipalities of Jenesano, Tibaná, Chinavita, Garagoa, and Guateque, this study focused on estimating the threat of landslides triggered by precipitation and seismic activity in the aforementioned road corridor. For this purpose, a model was used that considered the topography, geology, geotechnical parameters, and variables in terms of historical rainfall, which sometimes exceeded the failure thresholds defined for the area. Similarly, reliability techniques and the first order second moment probabilistic method (FOSM) were applied, which allowed the probability of failure due to seismic activity in saturated and unsaturated conditions for the calculation of the annual total failure probability to be determined. This was then used to determine and categorize the threat in Quantum GIS.

Keywords : landslides; precipitation; seismic activity; failure thresholds; probabilistic methods; FOSM; threat; SIG.

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