Abstract

RUIZ, DANIEL et al. Modeling entomological-climatic interaction of malaria transmission through system dynamics. Rev. Colomb. Entomol. [online]. 2003, vol.29, n.2, pp.191-201. ISSN 0120-0488.

A vector-borne disease model has been developed through system dynamics to represent the entomological, epidemiológica! and climatic interactions of malaria transmission conductive to disease outbreaks in Muquí prone-region, Chocó province, along the Pacific coast. The entomological exogenous variables considered relevant for malaria incidence have been collected from laboratory experiments and field data (indoor and outdoor captures). The parasite transmission between linking mosquitoes and vertébrate host populations during a blood meal has been represented usina three infectious disease models: the Entomological Inoculation Rate, the Basic Reproduction Rate and the Vectorial Capacity for diverse vector density scenarios. Considering a breeding place availability model and several predator-prey-food models allow us to represent the vectorial densities fluctuations observed during the fields campaigns. The comprehensive model has been applied to represent malaria incidence during the period Nov/1997-Feb/2001 (40 months, 1200 days simulation period), when both El Niño and La Nina events strongly affected the hydro-climatology of Colombia. The model has been run for observed climatic patterns such as mean daily temperatures, total daily precipitation records, and mean daily relative humidities gathered by a nearby climatological station. Diverse temperature scenarios have been considered to deepen the understanding of the entomological-climatic linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks. Sensitivity analysis and instabilities cases have been also studied during the experimentation-validation processes. Obtained results allow us to conclude that the model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the ecological, entomological, and epidemiológica! linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks.

Keywords : Simulation; Interactions; Climate; Dynamic; Incidence; Malaria.

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