Resumo

ALARCON HINCAPIE, Juan Carlos  e  PABON CAICEDO, José Daniel. Climate change and spatial distribution of vegetation in Colombia. Colomb. for. [online]. 2013, vol.16, n.2, pp.171-185. ISSN 0120-0739.

ABSTRACT Vegetation change under two climate change scenarios in different periods of the 21^st Century are modeled for Colombia. Vegetation for the years 1970 to 2000 was reproduced using the Holdridge model with climate data with a spatial resolution of 900 meters. The vegetation types that occupied the most territory were sub-humid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and Andean wet forest. These results were validated by comparing with the Colombian ecosystem map (SINA, 2007), which confirmed a high degree of similarity between the modeled spatial vegetation patterns and modern ecosystem distributions. Future vegetation maps were simulated using data generated by a regional climate model under two scenarios (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2007) for the periods 2011-2040 and 2070-2100. Based on our predictions high altitude vegetation will convert to that of lower altitudes and drier provinces with the most dramatic change occurring in the A2 scenario from 2070-2100. The most affected areas are the páramo and other high Andean vegetation types, which in the timeframe of the explored scenarios will disappear by the middle of the 21^st Century.

Palavras-chave : climate change; Colombia; impacts; model; vegetation changes.

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