Abstract

NAVARRO GUZMAN, Marco Alberto; JOVE CHIPANA, Cesar Augusto  and  IGNACIO APAZA, Javier Máximo. Modeling ecological niches of threatened flora for climate change scenarios in Tacna department - Peru. Colomb. for. [online]. 2020, vol.23, n.1, pp.51-67. ISSN 0120-0739.  https://doi.org/10.14483/2256201x.14866.

Despite the numerous scientific information on global climate change, there are no studies that show effects on biodiversity on a smaller scale. Therefore, using 19 bioclimatic variables, five solar radiation, altitude, specialized software (MaxEnt) and geographical coordinates of the presence of five species of categorized flora verified in the field, their current ecological niches were modeled and projected to the four future emission scenarios (2050 and 2070) showing that Buddleja coriacea will decrease by more than 80 % due to future variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change, while Carica candicans, Haplorhus peruviana, Kageneckia lanceolata and Weberbauerella brongniartioides will remain and increase, deducing that Its threat categories derive mainly from anthropogenic activity. These models significantly improve the understanding of ecosystem functioning, providing useful information to design conservation policies and actions that guide territorial management towards the Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategy.

Keywords : GEI; MaxEnt; Critically Endangered; RCP; Tacna; Worldclim.

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