Abstract

MARQUEZ, Luis. Safety perception in transport demand modeling for the bike-metro integration in Bogota, Colombia. Lect. Econ. [online]. 2016, n.84, pp.143-177. ISSN 0120-2596.  https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n84a05.

It is hypothesized that safety perception produces a significant effect on predicting demand for the bike-metro integration. Two models were calibrated in order to test this hypothesis: a mixed logit model and an integrated choice latent variable model, which were estimated simultaneously using simulated maximum likelihood. Data used in the estimation were taken in the locality of Kennedy, which is not only the most populous of Bogotá but also will be the starting point of the first metro line. The empirical evidence supported the hypothesis; in particular, it was found that the mixed model overestimates demand, especially in the scenarios for which provision of exclusive bicycle lanes was not considered. Also, significant differences in safety perception were found for users of motorcycle, taxis and public service, and generally for individuals according to income levels.

Keywords : integrated choice and latent variable models; safety perception; discrete choice experiments; bikemetro integration.

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