Abstract

MORA, Jhon James. Analysis of Unemployment and Employment After a Strict COVID-19 Confinement Policy in Cali. Lect. Econ. [online]. 2021, n.94, pp.165-193.  Epub Apr 16, 2021. ISSN 0120-2596.  https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n94a342002.

This article discusses the effects of the quarantine policies established due to the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the employment and unemployment rates of the city of Cali in 2020. As the policy of confinement affected the mobility of workers, the main effect fell on the generation of employment in the city. Consequently, inferring the effects on employment became one of the main challenges in the city. In order to analyze the impacts of COVID-19 on employment, a mixed methodology is proposed here. On the one hand, it involves information from a committee of labor market experts and, on the other hand, the use of time series. The results of this methodology show that the forecasts made were very close to what was observed in April, May and June. Finally, this article discusses the effect of a shock on Cali’s labor market, finding that it would last about 18 months on unemployment and almost a year on employment.

Clasificación JEL: J11, J23, J64, C32, C41.

Keywords : employment; unemployment; informality; experts committee; time series; seasonal unit root; Kaplan-Meir.

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