Abstract

CANDELO VIAFARA, Juan Manuel. Monthly Financial and Economic Uncertainty Index (IMIFE) for the Colombian Economy. Lect. Econ. [online]. 2021, n.95, pp.85-104.  Epub Sep 29, 2021. ISSN 0120-2596.  https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n95a343318.

This document develops an index that allows measuring the levels of uncertainty in the Colombian economy, which has been given the name of the IMIFE monthly index of financial and economic uncertainty. For this, the dynamic factors methodology was used using the historical ones of the international prices of oil, coal, gas, and the representative market rate of the peso per dollar (TRM). As relevant results, it is found that the index increased in times of economic crisis such as in 2008 (crisis suppressed) and 2020 (Covid-19). Likewise, an inverse behavior was identified between the value of the shares of Colombian companies and IMIFE; in addition to a negative impact of this index on the national economy. This index can be used by both economic policy makers, stock market investors, and organization managers.

Keywords : Uncertainty; index; Colombian economy; dynamic factors; energy raw materials; exchange rate.

        · abstract in Spanish | French     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )