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Lecturas de Economía
versão impressa ISSN 0120-2596
Resumo
MUNGUIA, René Javier Santos. Effect of remittances on GDP and the trade deficit in Honduras. Lect. Econ. [online]. 2023, n.99, pp.111-152. Epub 12-Jul-2024. ISSN 0120-2596. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n99a350324.
The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of workers’ remittances on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the trade deficit in Honduras. The article was conducted under a quantitative approach, using time series data with annual periodicity from 1990 to 2019 extracted from the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH) and the World Bank (WB). A vector autoregressive model (VAR) is established. The results are presented using impulse response function figures (IRF) and Granger causality table of the VAR model, which reveal a positive response of GDP and a negative response of the trade deficit in the short and medium term to the shock caused by the inflow of workers’ remittances. Remittances were also found to be predictive of GDP variability at the 0.1 significance level and of the trade deficit at the 0.05 significance level.
Palavras-chave : Remittances; GDP; trade deficit; VAR.