Abstract

MARTINEZ-GOMEZ, Pedro. Scientific prediction and prescription in plant genetic improvement as an applied science of design: The case of Prunus breeding. Acta Agron. [online]. 2017, vol.66, n.1, pp.115-127. ISSN 0120-2812.  https://doi.org/10.15446/acag.v66n1.52329.

Plant genetic improvement has a double scientific nature: it is both an empirical science of nature and an applied science of design. In this context, this paper provides an investigation of scientific prediction as an essential feature of plant genetic improvement as an applied science of design with special emphasis in the improvement of stone fruits (Prunus genus). In considering plant genetic improvement, we can speak of three levels of knowledge. These levels are associated with molecular biology (micro level); the genetic constitution of an individual (meso level); and the phenotype and overall appearance of the new release (macro level). These levels of reality affect both the type of prediction and the methodology applied. The prediction is the main objective of the plant genetic improvement as science of design. It is very important to have a knowledge of possible future to make a new design that will be complete within a few years, more than 12 years in the case of stone fruit that is the subject of this work. Finally, in developing a scientific prediction applied to Prunus breeding it is necessary to consider different internal (the genetic nature of the starting plant material, the available methodologies, etc.) and external (social acceptation, environmental factors, biotic and abiotic stresses, etc.) variables. The degree of knowledge of these variables determines the quality of the prediction in the design of the new Prunus varieties.

Keywords : Plant Breeding; Prunus; science; prediction; prescription.

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