Abstract

CHAPARRO ARIAS, Carlos Andrés; RUIZ TORRES, Juan Carlos  and  FONSECA CIFUENTES, Gina Paola. Forecast scallion production based on a VAR model. Acta Agron. [online]. 2024, vol.73, n.1, pp.82-91.  Epub June 03, 2025. ISSN 0120-2812.  https://doi.org/10.15446/acag.v73n1.115618.

This work aims to develop a VAR - forecast model for scallion production with data from the municipality of Aquitania, Boyacá (Colombia), using multivariate time series methods. The methodology included the implementation of study phases in accordance with the Box-Jenkins method, as well as the application of a series of statistical tests, including the Phillips-Perron stationarity test, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the Jarque-Bera normality test, the Phillips-Ouliaris test, the Granger causality test, among others. The results of this study confirm that the VAR model is an effective tool for planning the production and harvested area of scallion. Its predictive capacity facilitates strategic decision-making, optimizing agricultural management.

Keywords : Commodities; crop modelling; farm area; scallion; production.

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