Resumo

RAFFO LOPEZ, Leonardo; CASTRO, Javier Andrés  e  DIAZ ESPANA, Alexander. Balloon effects in coca crops in the Andean region (1990-2009). Apuntes del Cenes [online]. 2016, vol.35, n.61, pp.207-236. ISSN 0120-3053.

The aim of this article is to contrast empirically the presence of balloon effects affecting coca crops in the geographic territory corresponding to the main producer countries (Colombia, Perú and Bolivia) of the Andean region during the period 1990-2009. The empirical methodology has been focused in the specification and estimation of a simultaneous equation system using a SUR model. The model attempts to explain the behaviour of the number of hectares cultivated with coca plants as a function of different variables. We conclude that there is empirical evidence supporting the presence of balloon effects in the Andean region during the period of inquiry.

Palavras-chave : balloon effect; structural equations; illicit crops; SUR model; war against drugs.

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