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versão impressa ISSN 0120-3592


VELASQUEZ HENAO, uan David; DYNER RESONSEW, Isaac  e  CASTRO SOUZA, Reinaldo. Why is it so difficult to have good electricity price forecasting in competitive markets?. Cuad. Adm. [online]. 2007, vol.20, n.34, pp.259-282. ISSN 0120-3592.

Liberalization and deregulation processes around the world have transformed electrical power industries and provoked a much more complex price behavior. This article analyzes the difficulties that researchers and professionals have encountered when they attempt to predict electricity prices, for the purpose of contributing to identifying the most important obstacles that hinder good forecasting, in particular, those related to market complexity, human limitations in information processing, organizational policies, methodological problems, and limited experiences. The article also poses some useful questions, to define future research on price forecasting.

Palavras-chave : Forecasting; electricity prices; models; time series.

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