Resumo

FRANCO CARDONA, Carlos Jaime; VELASQUEZ HENAO, Juan David  e  OLAYA MORALES, Yris. Characterizing the monthly electrical power demand in Colombia using a model of non-observable components. Cuad. Adm. [online]. 2008, vol.21, n.36, pp.221-235. ISSN 0120-3592.

This article reports the results seen from adjusting a model of non-observable components to the monthly electrical power demand in Colombia from 1995:8 to 2006:1 in order to separate the underlying tendency of the periodical component associated with the annual cycle and study its behavior. Findings show that the periodical component has a stochastic behavior but such behavior does not broaden with an increased level in the series; likewise, the model indicates that the monthly growth in demand has a linear deterministic component, approximately constant during recent years, whose rises and falls have coincided with the rises and falls seen in the GDP.

Palavras-chave : demand; electrical power; structural models; time series.

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